The Log
18 December 2024: Global coal demand is expected to grow by 1% in 2024, reaching an all-time high of 8.77 billion tonnes, according to the Coal 2024 report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). This represents a considerable slowdown in growth from previous years: global coal consumption rose by 7.7% in 2021 as it rebounded from the Covid economic lockdowns, by 4.7% in 2022, and by 2.4% in 2023. The main driver of coal demand growth has been the power sector, with electricity generation from coal set to reach an all-time high of 10,700 TWh in 2024. The IEA expects the global coal consumption to level off through 2027.
17 December 2024: Updated Technology Guide paper on Compatibility of Biodiesel with Petroleum Diesel Engines—added more material on catalyst deactivation and on biodiesel effect on DOC light-off.
13 December 2024: Russia’s state oil firm Rosneft has agreed to supply nearly 500,000 barrels per day of crude oil to Indian private refiner Reliance in the biggest ever energy deal between the two countries [more ...]
7 December 2024: The share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales in the United States reached a new record of nearly 20% in Q3 2024. This increase in the electric and hybrid vehicle market share was driven primarily by HEV sales, while the market share of BEV and PHEV vehicles have both decreased [more ...]
30 November 2024: The November issue of the DieselNet Update newsletter is now available for your reading pleasure.
26 November 2024: The 2024 edition of the US EPA Automotive Trends Report shows that the downward trend for the average new vehicle real-world CO2 emission rate continued in model year 2023. The average MY 2023 vehicle produced 319 g/mi of CO2, which is 18 g/mi less than the previous model year, and the lowest emission rate on record. Real-world fuel economy increased by 1.1 mpg to a record high 27.1 mpg. Increased production of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids have noticeably influenced these overall trends. Without BEVs and PHEVs, the average new vehicle real-world CO2 emission rate was 38 g/mi higher, and the year over year improvement in model year 2023 was only 1.4 g/mi, as Americans buy increasingly larger and more powerful vehicles.
25 November 2024: A new study by Simon Michaux, published by the Geological Survey of Finland, presents the physical requirements in terms of required non-fossil fuel industrial capacity, to completely phase out fossil fuels, and maintain the existing industrial ecosystem. The existing industrial ecosystem dependency on fossil fuels was mapped by fuel (oil, gas, and coal) and by industrial application. The estimated sum total of extra annual capacity of non-fossil fuel power generation to phase out fossil fuels completely, and maintain the existing industrial ecosystem, at a global scale is 48,939.8 TWh. An estimate is presented for the total quantity of metals required to manufacture a single generation of renewable technology units (EV’s, solar panels, wind turbines, etc.) sufficient to replace energy technologies based on combustion of fossil fuels. It is shown that both 2019 global mine production, 2022 global reserve estimates, 2022 mineral resources, and estimates of undersea resources, were manifestly inadequate for meeting projected demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and vanadium.
21 November 2024: The Technology Guide paper on Carbon Capture and Storage for Marine Vessels has been updated with the recently published results of the Stena Impero OCCS study.
18 November 2024: The 15th VERT Forum will be held on 27-28 March 2025 at the EMPA Akademie in Dübendorf, Switzerland. The event will cover a range of topics related to the measurement and control of ultrafine particle emissions from internal combustion engines and other sources. VERT Members attend for free and have full access to the recently released database of VERT scientific publications.
16 November 2024: The Technology Guide coverage of biomass-based diesel fuels has been updated and restructured. A new paper, Biomass-Based Diesel Fuels, includes a thoroughly updated section on the commercial status of biodiesel and renewable diesel fuels. Other papers that have been updated and/or edited for consistency include Alternative Fuels, Renewable Hydrocarbon Fuels, and Biodiesel—Mono Alkyl Esters.
13 November 2024: Next May, in about six months from now, the 31st CIMAC Congress will open its doors in Zurich, Switzerland. The Congress organizers released a preliminary program, which includes more than 240 presentations grouped in 12 topics. The registration is now open.
11 November 2024: Added summary of Chinese fuel consumption regulations for heavy-duty vehicles.
9 November 2024: The California Air Resources Board approved major updates to the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), increasing the target to reduce the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuel pool to 30% by 2030, and introducing a new target of 90% reduction by 2045 [more ...]
8 November 2024: Geely debuted the NordThor EM-i gasoline-electric PHEV drivetrain, claiming engine thermal efficiency of 46.5%. In the Galaxy Starship 7 EM-i PHEV model, fuel consumption values range from 3.75 L/100 km to 4.88 L/100 km, with a combined gasoline-electric range of 1,430 km reported in the media [more ...]
6 November 2024: MAN Energy Solutions has decided to discontinue its first Otto cycle, LNG dual-fuel engine, MAN B&W ME-GA, just three years after its launch, citing upcoming methane slip regulations [more ...]
30 October 2024: Updated summary of Chinese fuel consumption regulations for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.
29 October 2024: The European Commission imposed definitive countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEV) from China for a period of five years [more ...]
26 October 2024: The European Council has formally adopted a directive setting updated air quality standards across the EU, effective from 2030. The revised standards are more closely aligned with the WHO 2005 air quality guidelines. Under the new directive, member states must also—for the first time—monitor ambient concentrations of ultrafine particles (UFP) through the measurement of particle number (PN) concentrations and particle size distributions (PSD) [more ...]
16 October 2024: The IEA’s World Energy Outlook report focuses on energy security risks from the escalating geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Some of the immediate effects of the global energy crisis had started to recede in 2023, but the risk of further disruptions is now very high, according to the IEA. As global electricity demand soars, the agency is also calling for greater investment in new energy systems, especially in electricity grids and energy storage.
14 October 2024: At last year’s COP28 conference in Dubai, countries pledged to collectively triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and double energy-saving efforts by 2030. Today, countries are on track for only half the renewable power growth required to meet the goal, according to an assessment report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The agency is calling for a dramatic surge in investment—reaching the COP28 targets requires a cumulative global investment of $31.5 trillion in renewables, grids, energy efficiency and related measures by 2030, according to IRENA.
7 October 2024: BP has abandoned a target to cut oil and gas output by 2030 as the company scales back its energy transition strategy to regain investor confidence, Reuters reports. Back in 2020, BP pledged to reduce oil and gas output by 40% by 2030, while rapidly growing renewables. Last year, BP scaled back the target to a 25% reduction. BP is now reportedly targeting several new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to increase oil and gas output.
4 October 2024: The European Commission’s proposal to impose duties on imports of electric vehicles from China has obtained the necessary support from EU Member States, which makes it increasingly more likely that the EU will finalize tariffs (“definitive countervailing duties”) of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made BEVs. In the vote, 10 EU members (including Italy, France, and Poland) backed tariffs while 5 (including Germany and Hungary) voted against, with 12 abstentions. The current provisional duties were imposed from July 5 for a maximum period of four months.
3 October 2024: Global demand for natural gas is increasing at a stronger rate than in the recent years and is forecast to rise by more than 2.5% in 2024, according to the IEA’s Global Gas Security Review. Fast-growing markets in Asia account for a large amount of the increase. At the same time, new gas supplies coming to market in 2024 remain limited due to slow growth of LNG production. A key uncertainty ahead of the 2024-25 winter is the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine, with existing contracts set to expire at the end of 2024. This could mean an end to all piped gas deliveries to Europe from Russia through Ukraine. In turn, this would require higher LNG imports to Europe in 2025 and consequently lead to a tighter global gas balance.
2 October 2024: Nett Technologies updated their DieselNet presence with the current portfolio of emission control products and services.
26 September 2024: Updated Technology Guide paper on Environmental Effects of Emissions—the section on global warming now includes more discussion on the impacts of decreasing emissions of reflective aerosols such as sulfates, the global warming potential of NOx, and other updates.
23 September 2024: Emission standards: Added summary of Australian Light-Duty Vehicle CO2 Standards.
20 September 2024: Faced with declining EV sales, ACEA is calling on the European Commission for a relief for the 2025 CO2 emission targets [more ...]
Engines & Emissions | Our Credo
The internal combustion engine (ICE) has been a key prime mover that largely replaced earlier prime movers of lesser efficiency—human labor, animal work, the water wheel, the windmill, and the steam engine—thus enabling modern industrial civilization. The most efficient type of ICE, the diesel engine, has been widely used in heavy trucks, construction and agricultural machinery, rail locomotives, ships, and emergency power generation. Its gasoline counterpart has been common in passenger cars. Another related power plant, the gas turbine, has been powering commercial aviation.
For many years, engine developers have been striving to make engines cleaner. Following the three-way catalyst for gasoline engines, clean diesel technologies that enabled near-zero emissions of PM and NOx were developed and introduced in many regions of the world. The focus in technology development has then shifted to climate change and energy efficiency. The benefit of low CO2 emissions, traditionally associated with the diesel engine, is no longer sufficient to meet GHG and fuel economy regulations. New technologies are being developed—such as new combustion techniques, powertrain electrification, and waste heat recovery—that further increase the efficiency not only of the engine itself, but of the entire vehicle. Critically, as GHG emissions occur at all stages of vehicle life, from manufacture through disposal, low-carbon policies must consider life cycle effects of fuels and vehicles.
A major challenge ahead is the approaching end of the Oil Age—not only due to climate policies, but for economic reasons stemming from the depletion of easily recoverable oil resources. As fossil fuels are replaced by alternatives of lesser energetic quality, the future of mobility remains largely unknown. While the world aims to embrace more sustainable mobility, most alternative powertrain technologies depend on quantities of rare and nonrenewable natural resources, and therefore are not truly sustainable. Another often suggested approach—that of fueling the ICE by low-carbon e-fuels—suffers from low efficiency and would require substantial amounts of energy, which seems problematic in an economy that no longer has access to cheap and abundant fossil energy. All this suggests that future mobility will be based on a mix of powertrain technologies, where combustion engines continue to play an important role.