EU: Average CO₂ emissions from new cars increase in 2018 for the second consecutive year

27 June 2019

According to provisional data published by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the average CO₂ emissions from new passenger cars registered in the European Union (EU) in 2018 increased for the second consecutive year, reaching 120.4 grams of CO₂ per kilometer. For the first time, the average CO₂ emissions from new vans (light commercial vehicles) also increased. Manufacturers will have to reduce emissions of their fleet significantly to meet the upcoming 2020 and 2021 targets, noted the EEA.

After a steady decline from 2010 to 2016, by almost 22 g/km, average CO₂ emissions from new passenger cars increased in 2017 by 0.4 g/km. According to the provisional data, the upward trend continued with an additional increase of 2.0 g/km in 2018.

Vans registered in the EU and Iceland in 2018 emitted on average 158.1 g/km CO₂, which is 2.0 g/km more than in 2017. This is the first increase in average CO₂ emissions from new vans since the regulation came into force in 2011. Following a sharp CO₂ decrease in 2017, vans appeared to have been on course to meet their 2020 emission targets, but the 2018 increase suggests this may no longer be the case.

The main factors contributing to the increase of new passenger cars’ emissions in 2018 include the growing share of petrol cars in new registrations that displace diesels, in particular in the sport utility vehicle (SUV) segment. Moreover, the market penetration of zero- and low-emission vehicles, including electric cars, remained slow in 2018. With the 2021 CO₂ target of 95 g/km approaching, much faster deployment of cars with low emissions is needed across Europe, said the EEA.

Many factors affected the increase in CO₂ emissions from new vans in 2018, including an increase in the mass, engine capacity and size of the vehicles. The market share of petrol vehicles also increased, constituting 3.6% of the new vans fleet (2.4% in 2017). The share of zero- and low-emission vans remained at the same level (1.7%) as in 2017. Further efficiency improvements are needed to reach the EU CO₂ target of 147 g/km set for 2020.

Other key findings of the report include:

• New cars
  • Petrol cars were the most sold passenger vehicles in the EU and in Iceland, constituting almost 60% of all new registrations. Diesel vehicles constituted 36% of the new registrations, marking a drop of 9 percentage points from 2017, and 19 percentage points from 2011 when diesel cars peaked with a 55% share of new registrations.
  • On average, the CO₂ emissions of diesel cars (121.5 g CO₂/km) are now very close to those of petrol cars (123.4 g CO₂/km). The difference of 1.9 g CO₂/km was the lowest observed in the past 5 years.
  • Around 4.5 million new cars sold in the EU and in Iceland in 2018—almost one out of three—were SUVs. Compared to cars in similar segment, SUVs are typically heavier and have more powerful engines and larger frontal areas—all features that increase fuel consumption. The majority of new SUVs sold were powered by petrol, with average emissions of 133 g CO₂/km, which is around 13 g CO₂/km higher than the average emissions of other new petrol cars.
  • Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and battery-electric vehicles (BEV) continued to increase. With around 150,000 registrations, sales of BEVs increased by 50% compared to 2017. However, the combined share of PHEVs and BEVs in all car sales remains low (2% compared to 1.5% in 2017).
  • The combined shares of PHEV and BEV sales were highest in Iceland (15%), Sweden (8.4%) and the Netherlands (6.8%). Together with Estonia, Finland and Malta, these were the only countries where the average emissions of new cars decreased from 2017 to 2018.
• New vans
  • In 2018, 1.66 million new vans were registered in the EU and in Iceland, which is an increase of 3.5% compared with 2017. Higher sales in Poland (+46%), Croatia (+28%) and Hungary (+21%) were accompanied by lower sales in Italy (-6%) and Spain (-5%).
  • Diesel vehicles continue to make up the vast majority of the new van fleet, constituting 94.7% of sales in 2018. However, the market share of petrol vans has been increasing since 2016.
  • The average weight of new vans registered in 2018 was 1839 kg, which is a slight increase of 1%, if compared with 2017. In addition to the increase in the average mass of registered vans, a larger average engine capacity (+1%) and a larger average vehicle size (+1.4% in the average distance between front and rear wheels) also contributed to the increase in average CO₂ emissions from new vans in 2018 compared to 2017.

As the average CO₂ emissions continue to increase, European car makers may be facing steep penalties for missing their 2020/2021 targets. These penalties are set at €95 for each car and €120 for each van, for each g/km exceeding the target. Volkswagen and FiatChrysler could face penalties of up to 1.83 billion euros and 746 million euros respectively, according to estimates by AlixPartners.

In December 2018, EU lawmakers reached an agreement to further tighten the fleet average emission targets from new cars for 2025 and 2030, which aim to reduce CO₂ emissions by 15% in 2025 and by 37.5% in 2030, compared with 2021 baseline levels. For light commercial vehicles, the targets consist of reductions by 15% in 2025 and 31% in 2030, relative to 2021. These targets require a significant penetration of electrically chargeable vehicles in the EU new vehicle fleet by 2030, possibly on the order of 30-40%. This carries a considerable business risk for the EU automotive industry, as the market potential of electric vehicles remains limited due to their higher cost and the lack of vehicle charging infrastructure.

ACEA, the trade group representing European vehicle makers, has repeatedly urged the EU member states to step up investments in charging points for electrically-chargeable vehicles and refueling stations for other alternatively-powered cars, and putting in place “meaningful and sustainable incentive schemes” to encourage more consumers to buy them.

“Amidst the strong push for alternatively-powered vehicles, we should not write off the latest generation of diesel cars, which not only emit less CO₂ than their petrol counterparts, but also deliver low on-road pollutant emissions in practice,” stressed ACEA Secretary General, Erik Jonnaert.

Source: EEA