BP Statistical Review shows declining energy demand and carbon emissions in 2020

13 July 2021

BP released the Statistical Review of World Energy 2021—the 70^th edition of the annual report—which collects energy data through 2020 and shows that the Covid-19 crisis had a dramatic impact on energy markets, with both primary energy and carbon emissions falling at their fastest rates since 1945.

Primary energy consumption fell by 4.5% in 2020, the first decline since 2009 during the financial crisis and the largest annual decline since 1945. This fall was driven mainly by oil, which accounted for almost three quarters of the net decline. By country, the USA, India and Russia saw the largest declines in energy consumption. China saw the largest increase (2.1%)—one of only a handful of countries where energy demand grew last year.

Carbon emissions from energy use fell by over 6% in 2020, to their lowest level since 2011. As with primary ‎energy, this was the largest decline since 1945.

Oil consumption dropped for the first time since 2009 by 9.3% (-9.1 million b/d). The largest falls were seen in the USA (-2.3 million b/d), the EU (-1.5 million b/d) and India (-480,000 b/d). China was virtually the only country where consumption increased (220,000 b/d). World oil production also fell for the first time since 2009, by 6.6 million b/d.

Natural gas consumption decreased by 2.3%, similar to the fall in 2009. Despite the reduction in absolute levels of demand, the share of gas in primary energy continued ‎to rise, reaching a record high of 24.7%. Gas consumption ‎fell in most regions – in North America and Europe by 2.6% and 2.5% respectively. Notable exceptions ‎to this trend were China, where demand grew by 6.9%, and Iran.‎

Coal consumption fell by 6.2 EJ, or 4.2%—its fourth decline in six years—led by ‎declines in the USA (-2.1 EJ) and India (-1.1 EJ). China and Malaysia were notable exceptions, increasing their coal consumption by 0.5 EJ and 0.2 EJ ‎respectively. Global coal production was down 8.3 EJ (5.2%)‎.

Electricity generation fell by 0.9%, more than the decline in 2009 (-0.5%). Wind, solar and hydroelectricity generation all grew despite the fall in overall electricity demand. The share of renewables in power generation increased from 10.3% to 11.7%, while coal’s share fell 1.3 percentage points to 35.1%—a new low in BP’s data series.

Wind and solar capacity increased by a colossal 238 GW in 2020–50% larger than at any time in history. However, as this increase is from a low base and the capacity utilization of wind and solar is small compared to fossil fuel or nuclear power generation, renewable energy still plays a very limited role in the global energy consumption, Figure 1.

The global economy consumed 556 EJ of primary energy in 2020. Solar generation contributed 7.60 EJ or 1.37% of this total, while wind energy contributed 14.13 EJ or 2.52%, according to BP data.

Other interesting findings from the BP Statistical Review 2021 include:

• The oil price (Dated Brent) averaged $41.84/bbl in 2020–the lowest since 2004.
• Refinery utilization fell by a record 8.3 percentage points to 73.9%, the lowest level since 1985.
• NG supply grew by 4 bcm or 0.6%, well below the 10-year average growth rate of 6.8%. US LNG supply expanded by 14 bcm (29%), but this was partially offset by declines in most other regions, notably in Europe and Africa.
• Renewable energy—including biofuels but excluding hydro—rose by 9.7%, slower than the 10-year average (13.4% p.a.) but the absolute increment in energy terms (2.9 EJ) was similar to increases seen in 2017, 2018 and 2019. China was by far the largest contributor to renewables growth, followed by the ‎USA, then Japan, the UK, India and Germany.
• Nuclear electricity consumption fell by 4.1%, falling the most in France (-0.4 EJ) and the USA (-0.2 EJ).
• Hydroelectric consumption rose by 1%, below the 10-year average of 2.1%.
• Lithium production fell 4.6% on a drop in Australian output, while cobalt output rose 2.9% as ‎production in Congo partially recovered from its dip in 2019.‎
• Rare earth metals production expanded by 23.2%, driven by strong growth in Australia and the USA.‎

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy