US DOE releases critical review of GHG emission impact on US climate
30 July 2025
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has published a new report entitled A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the US Climate, evaluating existing peer-reviewed literature and government data on climate impacts of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and providing a critical assessment of the conventional narrative on climate change.
The study was released concurrently with the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed rule to rescind the 2009 GHG Endangerment Finding.
Among the key findings, the report concludes:
- Elevated concentrations of CO2 directly enhance plant growth, globally contributing to “greening” the planet and increasing agricultural productivity. They also lower the pH of the oceans. That is possibly detrimental to coral reefs, although the recent rebound of the Great Barrier Reef suggests otherwise.
- Carbon dioxide also acts as a greenhouse gas, exerting a warming influence on climate and weather. Climate change projections require scenarios of future emissions. There is evidence that scenarios widely-used in the impacts literature have overstated observed and likely future emission trends.
- The world’s several dozen global climate models offer little guidance on how much the climate responds to elevated CO2, with the average surface warming under a doubling of the CO2 concentration ranging from 1.8°C to 5.7°C. Global climate models generally run “hot” in their description of the climate of the past few decades—too much warming at the surface and too much amplification of warming in the lower- and mid-troposphere. The combination of overly sensitive models and implausible extreme scenarios for future emissions yields exaggerated projections of future warming.
- Most extreme weather events in the USA do not show long-term trends. Claims of increased frequency or intensity of hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and droughts are not supported by US historical data. Global sea level has risen approximately 8 inches since 1900, but there are significant regional variations driven primarily by local land subsidence; US tide gauge measurements in aggregate show no obvious acceleration in sea level rise beyond the historical average rate.
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Attribution of climate change or extreme weather events to human CO2 emissions is challenged by natural climate variability, data limitations, and inherent model deficiencies. Moreover, solar activity’s contribution to the late 20
th century warming might be underestimated. - Both models and experience suggest that CO2-induced warming might be less damaging economically than commonly believed, and excessively aggressive mitigation policies could prove more detrimental than beneficial.
- US policy actions are expected to have undetectably small direct impacts on the global climate and any effects will emerge only with long delays.
The report was developed by the 2025 Climate Working Group, a group of five independent scientists assembled by Energy Secretary Chris Wright with diverse expertise in physical science, economics, climate science and academic research. The authors are: John Christy, Judith Curry, Steven Koonin, Ross McKitrick, and Roy Spencer.
Source: US DOE