EU truck manufacturers on track to meet 2025 CO₂ emissions targets

11 September 2025

A new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) reveals five of the seven largest European truck manufacturers, representing 70% of the market, are on track to meet the EU’s 2025 CO₂ target for heavy-duty vehicles (HDV).

European Union’s CO₂ standards mandate a 15% reduction in average emissions from new heavy-duty vehicles compared to 2019 levels. Compliance is determined by using a simulation tool, VECTO. Manufacturers can comply by improving the efficiency of their diesel and natural gas trucks and increasing sales of zero-emission models, including battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell, or hydrogen internal combustion vehicles.

There are also several compliance flexibilities available: manufacturers can earn credits by producing low-emitting vehicles between 2019 and 2024 and use these credits in 2025 if they miss the 15% target. They can also transfer vehicles between brands, effectively allowing manufacturers with the same parent company to pool their emissions.

Two manufacturers—Scania and Volvo Trucks—have already met the 2025 CO₂ target two years early in 2023, with Volvo leading Europe in zero-emission heavy vehicle sales. According to the ICCT, Renault Trucks and DAF can comply using credits earned between 2019 and 2023, MAN can stay on track by pooling their emissions with Scania, Daimler Truck will need moderate improvements to their diesel vehicles or higher zero-emission sales while Iveco could improve efficiency and increase zero-emission HDV sales.

According to the official EEA data, from 2019 to 2023, manufacturers cut their fleet-average CO₂ emissions by 6%–13% mainly by improving conventional vehicle technologies, while ZE HDV sales contributed up to 6% of the reductions for some truck manufacturers.

Technologies to improve internal combustion vehicles include improvements in the efficiency of combustion engines and transmission systems, improvements in cabin aerodynamics, lower-friction tires, and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS).

The average engine efficiency over the WHTC (not to be confused with peak efficiency) across all HDVs sold by the top 7 manufacturers in the 2023 reporting period was 43.2%, with Scania leading with 45.1% average efficiency and Iveco ranking lowest with 39.9%. Very few engine models exceeded 45%.

Sales of ZE HDVs remain limited but grew steadily up to June 2025, the end of the 2024 reporting period. According to certification data on new registrations from the EEA, 0.1% of the HDV categories covered under the scope of the standards were ZE in 2021, rising to 0.6% in 2022 and 1.1% in 2023. According to supplementary market data, these shares rose further to 1.7% in 2024. Most sales of ZE HDVs were by Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks contributing 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively, to their fleet-average specific CO₂ reductions.

Manufacturers earn early compliance credits based on the number of vehicle registrations and the difference between the Reduction Trajectory Line and the manufacturer’s average CO₂ emissions. These credits can be used for compliance with the 2025 target and become invalid thereafter. Scania and Volvo Trucks both achieved fleet average CO₂ reductions of over 15% in 2023, even without factoring in the accumulated early credits.

In April 2022, VECTO was updated to version 3.3 intended to more accurately reflect the real-world use of HDVs by updating how the long-haul cycle, gear shift strategy, and ADAS are accounted for. These changes resulted in reductions of about 3% in the certified CO₂ emissions of HDVs without any actual vehicle improvements compared to the emissions calculated from the version of VECTO used for the 2019 baseline year. While the European Commission plans to update the reference emissions from 2025 onwards by requesting that all manufacturers re-simulate their HDVs registered in the reference year of 2019 with VECTO 3.3, HDVs certified and registered in the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 will benefit from the ~3% CO₂ emissions reduction.

Source: ICCT