IMO green fuel strategy to drive deforestation
18 February 2025
The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) ‘green’ fuel strategy could cause vast areas of deforestation and disruption to global food supplies, warns a new analysis commissioned by the environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E).
Nearly a third of global shipping could run on biofuels in 2030, the T&E analysis shows, up from less than 1% today. Under the current draft of the IMO’s green fuels law, this could accelerate deforestation and put pressure on global food supplies.
The study by Cerulogy on behalf of T&E shows that palm and soy oil would likely make up nearly two-thirds of the biodiesel used to power the shipping industry in 2030 as they represent the cheapest fuels to comply. This poses a serious climate problem, warns T&E, as palm and soy are responsible for two to three times more carbon emissions than even the dirtiest shipping fuels today, once deforestation and land clearance are taken into account.
The fuel-intensive shipping industry would need vast amounts of farmland. By 2030, some 33-40 million hectares—the total area of Germany—would be needed to produce enough crops to meet the increased biofuels demand from the shipping industry.
This could have serious impacts on food supplies. Land that could be used for farming would need to be converted to growing biofuel crops, while burning vegetable oil derived fuels in ships will deprive supermarkets of a staple food item.
Shipping companies have invested in so-called waste biofuels like used cooking oil (UCO) and animal fats. However, waste biofuels would likely be able to cover just a small proportion of shipping’s projected biofuels demand as their availability is limited. Across all scenarios, the study estimates that the demand for UCO and animal fat would quickly exceed available supply by 2035.
Some shipping companies, including Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd called on the IMO to exclude unsustainable biofuels from its list of green alternatives to traditional fossil fuels. T&E has also called on the IMO to agree on a clear definition of what constitutes a ‘zero’ and ‘near zero’ emission fuel, to exclude deforestation-linked biofuels.
Source: Transport & Environment