The Log
16 October 2024: The IEA’s World Energy Outlook report focuses on energy security risks from the escalating geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Some of the immediate effects of the global energy crisis had started to recede in 2023, but the risk of further disruptions is now very high, according to the IEA. As global electricity demand soars, the agency is also calling for greater investment in new energy systems, especially in electricity grids and energy storage.
14 October 2024: At last year’s COP28 conference in Dubai, countries pledged to collectively triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and double energy-saving efforts by 2030. Today, countries are on track for only half the renewable power growth required to meet the goal, according to an assessment report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The agency is calling for a dramatic surge in investment—reaching the COP28 targets requires a cumulative global investment of $31.5 trillion in renewables, grids, energy efficiency and related measures by 2030, according to IRENA.
7 October 2024: BP has abandoned a target to cut oil and gas output by 2030 as the company scales back its energy transition strategy to regain investor confidence, Reuters reports. Back in 2020, BP pledged to reduce oil and gas output by 40% by 2030, while rapidly growing renewables. Last year, BP scaled back the target to a 25% reduction. BP is now reportedly targeting several new investments in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico to increase oil and gas output.
4 October 2024: The European Commission’s proposal to impose duties on imports of electric vehicles from China has obtained the necessary support from EU Member States, which makes it increasingly more likely that the EU will finalize tariffs (“definitive countervailing duties”) of up to 45% on imports of Chinese-made BEVs. In the vote, 10 EU members (including Italy, France, and Poland) backed tariffs while 5 (including Germany and Hungary) voted against, with 12 abstentions. The current provisional duties were imposed from July 5 for a maximum period of four months.
3 October 2024: Global demand for natural gas is increasing at a stronger rate than in the recent years and is forecast to rise by more than 2.5% in 2024, according to the IEA’s Global Gas Security Review. Fast-growing markets in Asia account for a large amount of the increase. At the same time, new gas supplies coming to market in 2024 remain limited due to slow growth of LNG production. A key uncertainty ahead of the 2024-25 winter is the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine, with existing contracts set to expire at the end of 2024. This could mean an end to all piped gas deliveries to Europe from Russia through Ukraine. In turn, this would require higher LNG imports to Europe in 2025 and consequently lead to a tighter global gas balance.
2 October 2024: Nett Technologies updated their DieselNet presence with the current portfolio of emission control products and services.
26 September 2024: Updated Technology Guide paper on Environmental Effects of Emissions—the section on global warming now includes more discussion on the impacts of decreasing emissions of reflective aerosols such as sulfates, the global warming potential of NOx, and other updates.
23 September 2024: Emission standards: Added summary of Australian Light-Duty Vehicle CO2 Standards.
20 September 2024: Faced with declining EV sales, ACEA is calling on the European Commission for a relief for the 2025 CO2 emission targets [more ...]
17 September 2024: It is time to register for the MDEC Mining Vehicle Powertrain Conference (MVPC), previously called the Mining Diesel Emissions Conference, that will be held on October 22-23, 2024 in Sudbury, ON, Canada. It is also still possible to submit a presentation abstract for the meeting [more ...]
14 September 2024: The financial market for Brent crude oil is “net short” for the first time ever, with the majority of investors betting that oil prices will fall even further, according to market analysts. This market pessimism seems odd, as physical global oil inventories are falling at a rate of about a million barrels per day and the oil stocks in Cushing, OK have been on a declining trend since mid-May. What do the markets know that we don’t?
13 September 2024: Using a new, satellite-based measurement method of ethane concentrations, University of Minnesota researchers found that the Permian Basin in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico has the highest persistent ethane signals on the planet [more ...]
29 August 2024: The global economy will still require some 100 million barrels of oil in 2050, according to ExxonMobil Global Outlook. But this supply level cannot be taken for granted, as global oil production is naturally declining at a rate of about 15% per year (sic!), or nearly double the IEA’s prior estimates of about 8% [more ...]
28 August 2024: Fuel regulations: Updated summaries of US Certification Fuels and EU Reference Fuels.
26 August 2024: Greenhouse gas concentrations, the global temperature across land and the ocean, and ocean heat content all reached record highs in 2023, according to the 34th annual State of the Climate report [more ...]
15 August 2024: SAE International reminds us that time is running out to register for COMVEC™—the leading commercial vehicle industry forum that will be held September 10-12, 2024 in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. Register and secure your spot now!
14 August 2024: Chevron started oil extraction from the Anchor project in the deepwater US Gulf of Mexico—the industry-first application of high-pressure technology capable to operate at up to 20,000 psi (138 MPa) of pressure, with reservoir depths reaching 34,000 feet (10,360 m) below sea level [more ...]
7 August 2024: Fuel regulations: Added summary of European Union’s Renewable Transportation Fuel Policies.
6 August 2024: Emission standards: The summaries of Chilean emission standards and diesel fuel regulations have been updated to cover the adoption of Euro VI/US 2010-based emission requirements for heavy-duty engines, effective from 2026.
31 July 2024: The Engine Technology Forum (ETF) released a white paper titled Powering On: Internal Combustion Engines & the Clean Energy Future, contributed by yours truly, Addy Majewski (ETF press release). The paper provides a comprehensive look at this critical technology and how it competes with electric vehicles and other emerging alternatives. The paper explores the relevant technical, policy, economic and market issues, calling into question the common narrative about the imminent demise of the internal combustion engine.
23 July 2024: The Technology Guide paper on Powertrain Alternatives has been updated with expanded discussion of life cycle GHG effects of electrified vehicles.
19 July 2024: The European Union’s plan to rapidly expand its green hydrogen market is overly ambitious, according to the European Court of Auditors. The European Commission set targets for the production and import of renewable hydrogen of 10 million tonnes each by 2030. These targets were not based on a robust analysis, but were driven by political will—said the Court of Auditors. Despite 18.8 billion euros in funding, the EU will not achieve the goal of creating a 20 billion tonne market by the end of the decade, and will have to adopt more realistic targets.
18 July 2024: Fuel regulations: Updated summaries of European standards and regulations for automotive diesel fuel and biodiesel fuel.
Engines & Emissions | Our Credo
The internal combustion engine (ICE) has been a key prime mover that largely replaced earlier prime movers of lesser efficiency—human labor, animal work, the water wheel, the windmill, and the steam engine—thus enabling modern industrial civilization. The most efficient type of ICE, the diesel engine, has been widely used in heavy trucks, construction and agricultural machinery, rail locomotives, ships, and emergency power generation. Its gasoline counterpart has been common in passenger cars. Another related power plant, the gas turbine, has been powering commercial aviation.
For many years, engine developers have been striving to make engines cleaner. Following the three-way catalyst for gasoline engines, clean diesel technologies that enabled near-zero emissions of PM and NOx were developed and introduced in many regions of the world. The focus in technology development has then shifted to climate change and energy efficiency. The benefit of low CO2 emissions, traditionally associated with the diesel engine, is no longer sufficient to meet GHG and fuel economy regulations. New technologies are being developed—such as new combustion techniques, powertrain electrification, and waste heat recovery—that further increase the efficiency not only of the engine itself, but of the entire vehicle. Critically, as GHG emissions occur at all stages of vehicle life, from manufacture through disposal, low-carbon policies must consider life cycle effects of fuels and vehicles.
A major challenge ahead is the approaching end of the Oil Age—not only due to climate policies, but for economic reasons stemming from the depletion of easily recoverable oil resources. As fossil fuels are replaced by alternatives of lesser energetic quality, the future of mobility remains largely unknown. While the world aims to embrace more sustainable mobility, most alternative powertrain technologies depend on quantities of rare and nonrenewable natural resources, and therefore are not truly sustainable. Another often suggested approach—that of fueling the ICE by low-carbon e-fuels—suffers from low efficiency and would require substantial amounts of energy, which seems problematic in an economy that no longer has access to cheap and abundant fossil energy. All this suggests that future mobility will be based on a mix of powertrain technologies, where combustion engines continue to play an important role.